Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
