Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
